سال انتشار: ۱۳۸۹

محل انتشار: همایش ملی یافته های نوین در مهندسی عمران

تعداد صفحات: ۹

نویسنده(ها):

Milad Eghtedari – Graduate student, School of Civil Engineering, university of Tehran, Tehran
Gholamreza Heravi – Assistant Professor, School of Civil Engineering, university of Tehran, Tehran

چکیده:

In this paper, on the basis of the past project cost and time performance, an exhaustive model for forecasting project cost performance is developed. In this model Earn Value Method (EVM) and Monte-Carlo simulation, which are two important techniques for calculating the actual progress and forecasting cost performance of projects are used. Likewise in this model for developing the project stochastic S-Curve (SS-Curve), project cost uncertainties are considered through the Beta distribution functions of the project activities costs, which are extracted from the previous projects information, real conditions, and expert judgment