سال انتشار: ۱۳۹۱

محل انتشار: دهمین همایش بین المللی سواحل، بنادر و سازه های دریایی

تعداد صفحات: ۷

نویسنده(ها):

Maryam Hamedani Azmoodehfar – 1MSc. Student, Faculty of Marine Sciences, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran
Seyed Ali Azarmsa – Associated Professor, Faculty of Marine Sciences, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran

چکیده:

The effects of El Niño and La-Niña are considered as the major variables in weather changes in the Middle East. This issue has been shown by regression indices in a number of papers. The presented study has proven that the El Niño and La-Niña should be added to the weather forecastvariables because of their major effects. Weather forecasts could be influenced by somevariables that have uncertainty, so the deterministic approaches may lead to incorrectpredictions. The proposed algorithm can be used when some variables have uncertainty. In this study, a probabilistic approach has been chosen to show the effect of El Niño and La Niña on weather changes. Data from Chabahar synoptic weather station, one of the stations in the southof Iran, has been chosen for the algorithm to be applied on. MATLAB has been used to run the algorithm on the data. The results show that El Niño leads to major effects on some weather parameters.