سال انتشار: ۱۳۹۱

محل انتشار: سومین کنفرانس بین المللی حوادث رانندگی و جاده ای

تعداد صفحات: ۱۴

نویسنده(ها):

Ali MansourKhaki – Associated Professor, Civil Engineering, Iran university of Science andTechnology, Iran
Pooya Najaf – Graduate Student, Transportation Engineering, Sharif University of Technology
Hassan Khaksar – PhD Candidate, Transportation Engineering, Iran university of Science and Technolgy, Iran

چکیده:

Traffic accidents are considered as the third cause of fatalities in Iran, which is five times more than the average world rate. Because causes in accidents are not limited, several different statistic models have been applied by safety researchers in order to determine the related factors. One of the most common models fordisaggregate data are discrete choice models. In this research, different factors which lead to single vehicle fixed object accidents have been studied based on thedriver gender. Tehran’s urban network accidents in the year 2009 are the studied dataset. Differences between male and female behaviors in fixed object accidents are evaluated by applying Logit and Probit models. In reality, effective causes and factors which increase the probability of this type of accidents are investigated considering the driver gender. Also, Importance of each variable is analyzed by Elasticity and Marginal effect functions. Finally, the ability of models in accident predictions is compared. Final results show that females generally drive more carefully and concentrate more than male drivers while driving in crowd areas or on gravel and slippery roads. Furthermore, females drive safer than males in nighttimes, and they observe traffic rules more than male drivers. The prominent causes of female driver accidents are disability in vehicle control, insufficient driving skills and haste which shows female’s lack of driving skillfulness and experience. Male drivers take less care and disregard more than females to the traffic rules, unlike they have higher driving skills