سال انتشار: ۱۳۹۰

محل انتشار: ششمین کنفرانس بین المللی زلزله شناسی و مهندسی زلزله

تعداد صفحات: ۸

نویسنده(ها):

A.B Lashak – International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology, Tehran, Iran
M Zare – Seismological Research Center, International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology (IIEES), Tehran, Iran
A Andalib – International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology, Tehran, Iran
Y Radan – International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology, Tehran, Iran

چکیده:

In this paper, we introduce a new approach to find the world’s dual seismicity zones, where an earthquake in one zone acts as a precursor to the events in some other zones. Dividing the entire global plane into well-defined sub-regions, this method creates a matrix whose different cells correspond to different spatial-temporal seismic attitudes, with each cell identifying the total number of events occurred in that sub-region within that specified period of time. It, then proposes a procedure to measure the possibility or likelihood of an event in those regions by looking through the current situation of the reference region. Therefore, the method can forecast future status of the reference region by searching the database of earthquakes which have occurred already, and this would further result in prediction of other double-seismicity regions. This problem includes an exhaustive search which needs precise algorithms from data mining to be fulfilled. Realization and validity of the new forecasting approach is simply confirmed by the last year’s events data recorded in NEIC catalogue.