سال انتشار: ۱۳۹۰

محل انتشار: اولین کنفرانس بین المللی و سومین کنفرانس ملی سد و نیروگاههای برق آبی

تعداد صفحات: ۱۳

نویسنده(ها):

Saeed Jamali – PhD Candidate, Department of Civil Engineering, Sharif University of Technology
Ahmad Abrishamchi – Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Sharif University of Technology
Eisa Bozorgzadeh – Deputy of Technical and Research Affaires, IWPCO

چکیده:

According to climate change, development of future hydropower generation is becoming more challenging. Clime change influences on hydrological cycle directly. In this study the sensitivity of the Karkheh River Basin to potential climate change is investigated by simulating basin streamflow response and hydropower production under different climate change scenarios. In order to examine these potential effects, outputs of the simulation of basin streamflow response with two general circulation models outputs under two greenhouse-gas emissions scenarios for three time horizons. These scenarios were applied into an integrated water resources management model. The results show that annual and seasonal hydropower production indicators in mostscenarios will fall because of drier hydrologic conditions. These reductions will be more serious in long term planning (2070’s). These failures indicate that operation rules curves which were developed under historical data in Karkheh River Basin integrated water resources planning would not be appreciated for climate change condition. Therefore, the adaptation of reservoir operation rules for each dam should be accomplished under various climate change scenarios.